World Energy Scenarios to 2040

The World Energy Scenarios 2019 updates the Council’s global foresight first launched in 2016. The refresh focuses on how disruptive innovations—both energy and non-energy—could reshape the pace and direction of the energy transition over the next two decades. These scenarios are designed as pre-decision frameworks to help leaders engage with deep uncertainties and prepare for multiple plausible futures.

The updated framework builds on three years of member surveys, expert consultations, and annual dialogue with global energy leaders. This input confirmed the continued relevance of the Council’s three scenario archetypes while adding new insights on system innovation and the phenomenon of “disruption-as-usual.” The analysis captures a shifting global context, including i) a period of high, carbon-intensive energy demand alongside accelerating renewable deployment, ii) rising geostrategic competition, putting strain on multilateral cooperation and global trade, iii) increasing speed, volatility, and unevenness of change, creating investment and governance challenges.

Using the Global Multi-Regional MARKAL model (GMM), three scenarios were quantified:

• Modern Jazz – a market-led, digitally disrupted world with rapid but uneven economic growth.
• Unfinished Symphony – a policy-led, globally coordinated pathway prioritising equitable access and affordable decarbonisation.
• Hard Rock – a fragmented world with inward-looking policies, slower growth, and minimal cooperation.

The 2019 edition expands the focus beyond technological change to include evolving consumer behaviours, new business models, and cross-sector innovations that could disrupt existing value chains. System-thinking maps, comparative analyses, and regional summaries accompany the narratives to help users apply the scenarios in strategic planning and policy design.

Developed through input from the Council’s global network of energy experts, these scenarios are designed as a pre-decision framework for leaders navigating deep uncertainties. They explore plausible—not prescriptive—futures to 2040, providing insights into system innovation, emerging risks, and strategic opportunities in the era of “disruption-as-usual.”