Updated modelling for the Hydrogen Strategy of Canada

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) updated its national hydrogen modelling in direct response to recommendations from the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development (CESD) following the 2022 audit report Hydrogen’s Potential to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The CESD called for comprehensive, bottom-up modelling of hydrogen’s role in Canada’s energy system, assessing sectoral abatement costs, competition with other low-carbon solutions, and feasible technology deployment with supporting infrastructure.

The updated analysis, delivered as part of the Biennial Report for the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada, was conducted using the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM). This economy-wide optimisation framework simulates energy production and consumption to 2050 under cost-competition across all technologies, treating hydrogen as one of several competing energy carriers. The modelling incorporates recent policy developments, technology advances, and higher ambition from governments, industry, and municipalities, and evaluates hydrogen’s role in net-zero scenarios alongside electrification, biofuels, and other mitigation options.

The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 while positioning the country as a global leader in clean hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Updated modelling results are informing Canada’s hydrogen market development roadmap, federal and provincial policy design, and investment strategies. The 2023 Progress Report establishes a baseline for tracking the 32 objectives in the federal Strategy and will guide future updates.