Transport decarbonisation strategies for 15 municipalities in Västerbotten 

Local governments have a key role to play in Sweden’s push to decarbonise domestic transport. In Västerbotten, a collaborative modelling exercise helped municipalities identify effective, locally tailored measures to meet the transport sector’s climate goals. The work was part of the “Fossil Transports in the North” project, led by the County Administrative Board of Västerbotten and its 15 municipalities. It focused on passenger and freight transport (excluding aviation and shipping) and explored both the 2030 target for the sector and the longer-term objective of climate neutrality by 2045.

The analysis used the TIMES-City model in an iterative process involving municipal officials in data collection, scenario design, and the review of preliminary and final results. The approach distinguished between actions municipalities can influence directly (e.g., local infrastructure, procurement policies) and indirectly (e.g., influencing travel behaviour), and highlighted differences in conditions across municipalities. 

The modelling provided concrete, municipality-specific results, summarised in a policy-oriented report and detailed technical annexes. It also offered guidance on how best to present and communicate model outputs to decision-makers. The success of the project has spurred interest from other regions in Sweden to apply similar modelling support and to update Västerbotten’s results in the coming years.