The New Zealand Energy Scenarios

The New Zealand Energy Scenarios TIMESNZ 2.0 initiative supports national policy and strategy development by providing robust, technologyrich insights into longterm decarbonisation pathways. Led by the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) in partnership with the BusinessNZ Energy Council (BEC) and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), the project maintains and advances the TIMESNZ optimisation model covering the full national energy system from primary resources to final consumption.

The model underpins two contrasting national scenarios: Kea (a cohesive, coordinated approach that prioritises climate action) and Tūī (a more individualistic, marketdriven pathway). These scenarios enable government, industry, and other stakeholders to test assumptions, compare emissions outcomes, and assess the impacts of alternative policy, investment, and behavioural choices. Regular model updates, data improvements, and deepdive sectoral analyses ensure policy relevance and support ongoing engagement with decisionmakers.

The insights from TIMESNZ 2.0 were actively used in government and industry consultation processes, providing an additional evidence base for major national policy decisions. In particular, the scenarios contributed to the emissions budgetsetting process and informed the preparation of New Zealand’s first Emissions Reduction Plan. By integrating the model’s outputs into strategic planning, public authorities and businesses can evaluate tradeoffs between emissions reduction, economic competitiveness, and energy security—helping align national energytransition strategies with climate goals.