Multi-sectoral modelling to support AEMO’s Integrated System Planning

CSIRO was commissioned by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)—the independent system operator of Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM)—to undertake multi-sectoral modelling of alternative energy and emissions scenarios extending to 2058. AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the NEM, including the 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP), as well as the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO).

A key requirement of each ISP is the identification of an Optimal Development Path (ODP), which outlines the mix of generation, storage, and network investments required to meet consumer needs and government energy and emissions targets. The ODP assesses available options and identifies the lowest-cost, resilient, and pragmatic path toward the NEM’s net-zero-by-2050 objective. The ISP and its ODP are used by governments and industry to guide infrastructure investment and inform policy development and are the outcome of extensive consultation and engagement with stakeholders over a two-year period. 

The modelling undertaken used the CSIRO and Climateworks Centre (CWC) AusTIMES model to assess least-cost pathways for the Australian economy under AEMO’s planning scenarios. The scenarios reflect emissions targets aligned with specific global temperature outcomes and incorporate demand drivers such as economic growth, energy efficiency improvements, and uptake of consumer energy resources, including electric vehicles. They also define activity levels associated with export opportunities for global decarbonisation, including hydrogen and green commodity industries. 

A consultation was held the inputs, assumptions and scenarios for use in its 2025-26 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2026 ISP.