Long-term power market analysis in Norway

Norway’s Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) published its longterm power market analysis for 2023, providing a forwardlooking assessment of electricity market developments through to 2040. The analysis serves as a strategic knowledge base for NVE’s regulatory and advisory functions, informing national decisionmaking on electricity production, transmission, and market design. It is used to advise the Ministry of Energy, respond to government requests, and support socioeconomic assessments in licensing processes for new generation and grid projects.

The study examines future trends in power balance and price formation, considering factors such as electrification, climate policy, EU energy developments, renewable generation expansion, demand growth, and the need for system flexibility. The work highlights the tradeoffs between ensuring security of supply, keeping electricity affordable, and achieving Norway’s climate objectives. While the analysis is not prescriptive, it provides decisionmakers with a coherent framework to assess how market conditions and policy choices interact in shaping the energy transition.

By integrating market projections into policy and regulatory workflows, the analysis underpins Norway’s approach to balancing renewable energy expansion with system stability and competitive electricity prices. It also strengthens the evidence base for longterm planning, ensuring that investment and policy decisions remain aligned with national climate and energy goals.