Long-term energy system scenarios to support national climate reporting     

Every two years, the Swedish Energy Agency develops long-term scenarios for Sweden’s energy system. The purpose of these scenarios is to provide an overall picture of the energy system and to illustrate possible development pathways over the long term. They are used as an input to Sweden’s climate reporting and serve as a basis for other analyses and assignments carried out in support of national energy and climate policy.

The 2025 long-term scenarios present four exploratory scenarios that illustrate how the pathway toward an energy system with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 could develop, as well as how the system may evolve during the ten years that follow. The scenarios are designed to explore alternative possible futures for Sweden’s energy system rather than to provide forecasts or policy prescriptions. Their value lies in presenting different long-term development paths that can be examined in relation to one another. 

The scenarios cover the entire energy system, including energy supply, energy conversion, and the final use of energy carriers. By encompassing the full system, the scenarios provide a comprehensive basis for understanding how different parts of the energy system may evolve together under alternative long-term conditions. This whole-system perspective supports the use of the scenarios in national climate reporting and in other analytical and policy-related work that requires consistency across sectors and energy uses. 

Through the regular development of long-term scenarios, the Swedish Energy Agency provides a stable analytical framework that can be used to assess how Sweden’s energy system may develop under different assumptions over time. The 2025 scenarios contribute to this ongoing work by offering a structured set of alternative pathways toward net-zero emissions, supporting policy-relevant analysis without prioritising or recommending a specific pathway.