Energy Scenarios to 2060

The BusinessNZ Energy Council developed two longterm energy transition narratives to 2060, quantified using the TIMESNZ model. This work aimed to give policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders a clearer view of possible future energy system transformations and their policy implications.

The Kea scenario reflects a proactive stance, where New Zealand commits early to strong climate leadership, aligning with international best practice to reduce emissions. The Tūī scenario assumes a more gradual approach, where action is slower and shaped largely by market forces, with climate change addressed alongside other priorities. Both scenarios identify 2040 as a pivotal point for the energy transition, after which deeper decarbonisation measures are required.

The project was designed as a policy tool rather than a prediction exercise. It provided a structured way to explore uncertainties, assess strategic options, and evaluate the resilience of different policy approaches under divergent global and domestic conditions. The work informed public debate on New Zealand’s lowemissions transition and provided a reference point for aligning nearterm actions with longterm climate goals.