Assessing 2030 targets under the EU Fit for 55 package

In 2021, the Italian Ministry of Ecological Transition commissioned an assessment of the new EU Fit for 55 targets to understand their implications for the national energy system. Using the TIMESRSE model in combination with the sMTSIM simulator, the analysis examined the impact of the revised 2030 greenhouse gas, renewable energy, and energy efficiency targets—both individually and in combination—on Italy’s decarbonisation pathway.

The work identified which EU targets align with Italy’s energy system characteristics and which present significant implementation challenges. It also assessed the potential role of emerging options such as hydrogen and carbon capture, as well as the additional flexibility needs in the power sector to ensure secure operation under high shares of variable renewables. The findings supported Italy’s negotiations with the European Commission and informed national policy design to align the country’s energy strategy with EU 2030 objectives and the longterm goal of climate neutrality by 2050.