Pre-print of conference paper

Modelling technological progress in a MARKAL model for Western Europe including clusters of technologies1

A.J. Seebregts, T. Kram, G.J. Schaeffer, A.J.M. Bos

Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies2

 

In 1998, the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)3 and ECN carried out the first MARKAL experiments with endogenous technology learning (ETL) in the framework of an EU4 sponsored research project 'TEEM' (Energy Technology Dynamics and Advanced Energy System Modelling). This paper summarises recent experience gained at ECN with its comprehensive energy system model MARKAL for Western Europe, including endogenous technology learning based on the learning-by-doing mechanism and expanding on the concept of technology clusters.

These experiments have confirmed the benefits expected from adoption of the mechanism. An important issue, often overlooked in simple models is the notion of interdependency between (families of) technologies, rather than considering individually learning technologies. An approach to address such clusters has been developed and tested. The results indicate that the new ‘cluster feature’ improves the internal consistency and allows for assessment of spill-over and cross-over effects, and other mechanisms identified in technology dynamics. Insights are gained in economic benefits associated with context-driven technological progress, as well as in the potential of R&D and market deployment policies.

Notes:

  1. Paper to be presented at the European IAEE/AEE Conference ‘Technological Progress and the Energy Challenge’, 30 Sep - 1 Oct 1999, Paris, France.
  2. Address: ECN Policy Studies, P.O. Box 1, NL-1755 ZG Petten, The Netherlands, E-mail: seebregts@ecn.nl
  3. The co-operation with Leonardo Barreto and Socrates Kypreos from PSI is highly acknowledged.
  4. The European Commission is acknowledged for sponsoring the ECN contribution to the TEEM project (Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III, contract JOS3-CT97 0013).

More details and other references on ETSAP site about Technology Learning:

  1. Modelling technological progress in a MARKAL model for Western Europe including clusters of technologies
    ECN report ECN-RX-99-028, August 1999
    Paper presented at the European IAEE/AEE Conference ‘Technological Progress and the Energy Challenge’, 30 Sep - 1 Oct 1999, Paris, France.
    A.J. Seebregts, T. Kram, G.J. Schaeffer, A.J.M. Bos
    Full ECN paper as pre-print available in PDF format (194 kbytes)
  2. A Simple Global Electricity MARKAL Model with Endogenous Learning
    S. Kypreos and L. Barreto
    First PSI paper from ETSAP workshop October 1998 now available also as PDF file
  3. Endogenous technological learning: Experiments with MARKAL - Contribution to Task 2.3 of the EU-TEEM project
    ECN report ECN-C--98-064, December 1998
    Seebregts, A.J.; Kram, T.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Stoffer, A.
    Abstract available
  4. Endogenous technological change in energy system models - Synthesis of experience with ERIS, MARKAL, and MESSAGE
    ECN report ECN-C--99-025, April 1999
    Seebregts, A.J.; Kram, T.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Stoffer, A. (ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)); Kypreos, S.; Barreto, L. (Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland)); Messner, S.; Schrattenholzer, L. (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria))
    Abstract available or as full report in PDF format, 168 kbytes)
  5. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype
    PSI report Nr. 99-08, September 1999
    L. Barreto and S. Kypreos
    Executive summary available
  6. Technology Learning and the Role of Renewable Energy in Reducing Carbon Emissions [update!] 07.12.99
    USDOE/BNL/PSI report, December 1999 (pre-publication of a chapter in a book to be published in 2000)
    P. Tseng, J. Lee, L. Barreto and S. Kypreos
    Executive summary available