Bob van der Zwaan, Ad Seebregts, ECN Policy Studies,
available in PDF-format (58 kB)
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This paper will be presented at Risk and Uncertainty in Environmental and Resource Economics
Wageningen, June, 5-7 2002
A more extended paper covering these topics is being written.
Full text short paper:
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This article gives an overview of uncertainties related to endogenous technological
change as observed in IAMs of global warming, both for bottom-up and top-down
climate-energy-economic models. A classification is formulated by which
uncertainties can be evaluated, and through which one can distinguish between
modelling, methodological and parameter uncertainties. We emphasise that
the analysis of uncertainties in IAM exercises of global warming is essential
for both scientific and policy-related reasons. At present, proper analyses
of the sensitivity and robustness characteristics of modelling results
are often neglected. Our main conclusion, and recommendation, is that in
future IAM analyses of climate change, both for the benefit of scientists
and public policy decision makers, the presence of different kinds of major
uncertainties should be appropriately recognised, classified, quantified