ETSAP has the following reports available on this site: Dealing with uncertainty together

This report was prepared by the Stichting Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN), acting as Operating Agent for Annex VI of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP), an Implementing Agreement of the International Energy Agency (IEA). As such, the material presented is the result of a collaborative research task, drawing upon studies performed by participants in IEA-ETSAP/Annex VI and guided by the ETSAP Executive Committee. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Governments of any IEA member state, or any agency, contractor or subcontractor thereof; nor those of the International Energy Agency.

Full report is available as PDF file (PDF format, 456 kB)

Executive Summary

In Annex VI, the work of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) increasingly reached out to the international community. Especially in connection with the preparation for the Conferences of Parties under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), the analytic tools and databases developed by ETSAP proved their worth in national analyses of greenhouse gas emission restrictions, multina-tional comparisons of such responses, and evaluations of the benefits of in-ternational co-operation. Anticipating the urgent need for this kind of capability, the ETSAP community improved the well-established MARKAL energy systems model and extended it in new directions. These included linking na-tional models, expanding system boundaries in time and place, joining MARKAL with economic models, adding material flows, and developing ap-proaches to treating uncertainty.

In various forms, the MARKAL progeny now provide fully integrated energy/economy/environment models. These enable the simultaneous assess-ment of multiple, linked issues such as energy security, atmospheric acidification and climate change. Almost alone among the models being used to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reductions, the MARKAL models are based explicitly on the specific technologies that must produce the reductions.

The basis for this achievement is the international network of systems ana-lysts that has been built up under the aegis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) during the past two decades. During Annex VI, the Republic of Korea and Turkey joined the active members of the IEA Implementing Agreement: Australia, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United States and the Commission of the European Union.

The group meets semiannually, usually in joint workshops with other groups doing related work, to report progress, provide peer review, and build on each other's accomplishments. Participants co-operate in model develop-ment, the preparation and validation of technological data, comparison of na-tional assessments, and evaluation of multinational strategies for emission reduction, with the common goal of assessing and ranking technological op-tions.

Individually, some of the participants promote outreach of the ETSAP tools to other countries. In Annex VI, six issues of IEA ETSAP News were published. A World Wide Web site ( was established to broadcast ETSAP's work to a wider audience. An International Energy Agency review during Annex VI described ETSAP as 'an energy technology policy analysis instrument,' providing the IEA with 'a widely used and applied analytical tool, serving to enhance its authority in in-ternational discussions.'