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Copenhagen November 2014

66th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting

66th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting

Organised by the Danish Energy Agency and DTU Management Engineering


Final Program


Dates: 17-21 November, 2014
Venue: UN City, Marmorvej 51, Copenhagen Ø (Denmark) UN City Conference centre
Contacts: Cristian [This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]
Peggy [This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]
Kenneth [This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]
George Giannakidis, [This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]

UNEP DTU Partnership (formerly UNEP Risø Centre), which is part of DTU Management Engineering, moved to UN City in April 2014. The new UN city building in Nordhavn hosts many of the UN agencies located in Copenhagen. The UN City is part of the new urban development in the North Harbour of Copenhagen, located only a few kilometres north of the city centre.


EVENT OVERVIEW

  Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Morning sessions Energy Modelling in DK 1 & 2 ETSAP regular workshop 1 & 2 ETSAP – TIAM workshop 1 & 2 TIMES – CGE workshop 1 & 2 CHP site visit ETSAP TIMES training ETSAP TIMES training
Afternoon sessions Energy Modelling in DK 3 Electro-mobility and EV Step workshop ETSAP regular workshop 3 ETSAP tools ETSAP ExCo Meeting   TIMES – CGE workshop 3 & 4  
Other activities   UN City building tour      

Monday, November 17, 2014 (9:00-16:00)
Energy Modelling in Denmark Workshop

Venue: UN City Auditorium II

The opening session will focus on energy system perspectives relevant for Denmark. The key topics for energy modelling are presented, such as energy savings, wind integration and district heating. Several Danish institutions, including the Danish Energy Agency, will present and discuss scenarios for a fossil-free Danish energy system towards 2050.


8:30-9:00

Registration, UN security check

9:30

Welcome Auditorium II
Kristoffer Steen Andersen, (Energistyrelsen / DEA)
Kenneth Karlsson, (DTU)
Opening Remarks, Introduction of the IEA ETSAP workshop and associated events
Overview of forecasting tools used for planning by DEA

9:45-11:25

Session 1: Energy Modelling in Denmark 1
Chair: Rikke Næraa, DEA
Peter Bach, Energistyrelsen / DEA Energy consumption: Highlights and future development - Highlights for energy savings / energy efficiency in Denmark and the presentation of the consumption model, used for projecting the future consumption for the 2050 scenarios
Sigurd Lauge Pedersen, Energistyrelsen / DEA Scenarios for a fossil free Danish Energy System in 2050 - Presentation of the Energy Balance model and results followed by Q&A

11:25-12:00

Coffee Break

12:00-13:30

Session 2: Energy Modelling in Denmark 2
Chair: Kenneth Karlsson, DTU
Olexandr Balyk, DTU The effect of microscale spatial variability of wind on estimation of technical and economic wind potential
Karsten Hedegaard, Ea Energy Analyses Heat planning for the Greater Copenhagen area
Stefan Petrovic, DTU Heat savings and District heating in TIMES-DK

13:30-14:30

Lunch

14:30-15:30

Session 3: Energy Modelling in Denmark 3
Chair: Peggy Mischke, DTU
Akram SANDVALL, Chalmers Economic impact of large-scale utilisation of excess heat - assessment through regional modelling
Pernille Seljom, IFE/NTNU Stochastic modelling of short-term uncertainty in TIMES - A case study of wind power in Denmark

15:30-16:00

Coffee Break

Monday, November 17, 2014 (16:00-18:00)
Electro-mobility and EV-STEP Regional workshop

Venue: UN City Auditorium II

The EV-STEP project will develop a framework for an integrated assessment in order to assess the key technical and economic conditions of an increased electrification of European transport systems. The modelling framework includes the Pan-European TIMES and IMACLIM models for electrical vehicles. This session will focus on technology modelling, while the soft linking to a CGE model will be presented in the TIMES-CGE workshop on Wednesday.


16:00-17:30

Session 4: Electro-mobility and EV-STEP Regional workshop
Chair: Poul Erik Grohnheit, DTU
Assoumou, Edi, Mines ParisTech EV-STEP project presentation
Jerome Houel - Mines ParisTech CMA, France France case study - Model based analysis of the deployment of electric vehicles in the Paris Ile de France Region
Markus Blesl, IER The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe
Subash Dhar – UNEP DTU Partnership India case study - Future of Electric Vehicles in Road Passenger Mobility of India
Poul Erik Grohnheit, DTU Choice of aggregated parameters for integration of electric vehicles to grid in a TIMES model for a region dominated by wind power

17:30

Event close

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 (9:00-12:30)
ETSAP Regular Workshop

Venue: UN City Auditorium II

The core of the semi-annual workshops contains presentations of applications of ETSAP modelling tools, MARKAL and TIMES for local, national and global models focusing on a wide range of technologies.


8:30

Registration, UN security check

9:30-10:30

Session 1: ETSAP Regular Workshop 1
Chair: George Giannakidis, CRES
Arne Lind, Institute for Energy Technology, Norway How Do Various Risk Factors Influence the Green Certificate Market of Norway and Sweden?
Pernille Seljom, Institute for Energy Technology, Norway Time-slice and regional structure – Experiences with NET- model
STRACHAN, Neil, UCL The New Modelling-Policy Interface: Developing a Fully Open Source UK TIMES Model
Sean Collins, UCC Scrutinizing electricity sector results from PRIMES Energy System model using soft-linking methodology

10:30-11:00

Coffee Break

11:00-12:30

Session 2: ETSAP Regular Workshop 2
Chair: Pernille Seljom, IFE/NTNU TBC
Kannan Ramachandran, PSI Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
O'Gallachoir, Brian, UCC Energy systems & power systems modelling, Comparing Experiences in Ireland and Japan (Tentative)
Selosse, Sandrine, MPT/CMA TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to South America and the Caribbean
Welsch, Julia, IER Modelling of storage processes in TIMES

12:30-13:00

Lunch

13:00-13:30

UN City Visit
Surabhi, UNEP DTU Partnership Guided tour of UN city building - UN city building concept and energy / water efficiency features

13:30-15:00

Session 3: ETSAP Regular Workshop 3
Chair: Neil Strachan, UCL, TBC
Mulholland, Eamonn, UCC Soft-Linking a TIMES Model and Sectoral Simulation Model for Individual Policy Measures
Sgobbi, Alessandra, EC JRC The role of hydrogen in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system
Simoes, Sofia, NUL Back to the Future – Assessing two decades of energy projections and scenarios using TIMES for Portugal

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 (15:00-16:00)
ETSAP Tools

Venue: UN City Auditorium II

This session is devoted to presentations on the progress of the ETSAP tools, including models user interfaces, and databases.


15:00-15:45

Session 4: ETSAP tools workshop
Chair: Brian O´Gallachoir, UCC
Goldstein, Gary, Dec.Ware Inc. Update on World Bank Climate Smart Planning Platform
Lehtila, Antti, VTT Making TIAM-MACRO-SA an Integrated Assessment Model
Noble, Ken, Noble- Soft Systems ANSWER-TIMES update
Giorgio Simbolotti, GianCarlo Tosato ETSAP ETechsDS: Data Normalization Project

15:45

Event close for non-ETSAP delegates

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 (16:00-18:00)
ETSAP Executive Committee

UN City VIP Meeting Room 0.2.20
Participation restricted to ETSAP Delegates, officers, and invited experts.
A separate meeting agenda was distributed.


Wednesday, November 19, 2014 (9:00-12:30)
TIMES-CGE Workshop

Venue: UN City Auditorium II

Second IEA-ETSAP funded workshop on methods linking energy systems models to economic models. In the previous workshop in UCC, Cork, February 2014 it was decided that a certain level of harmonising of presentations and papers would be useful for easier comparison of methods & approaches in the follow up workshop is used in several countries with focus on selected technologies.


8:30

Registration, UN security check

9:30-10:30

Session 1: ETSAP Regular Workshop 1
Chair: Brian O Gallachoir, UCC
Brian O Gallachoir, University College Cork Opening Remarks
Per Ivar Helgesen, Norwegian University of Science and Technology Comparing linking versus integration in hybrid modelling – combining TIMES with CGE models
Patrícia Fortes CENSE/Nova University of Lisbon Are green goals too optimistic? Exploring the impacts of renewable energy on the Portuguese economy using an hybrid modelling approach
Kristoffer Steen Andersen, Danish Energy Agency IntERACT: Coupling TIMES_DK and CGE
Sarah Stanley, Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Ireland's Sustainable Energy Investment Model (SEIM)
Maria Rosa Virdis, ENEA ENEA Hybrid modelling: linking energy systems models with economic models

10:30-11:00

Coffee Break

11:00-12:30

Session 2: TIMES-CGE Workshop 2
Chair: Niel Strachan, UCL (TBC)
Hiroshi Hamasaki, Fujitsu Research Institute Technology Bundle Approach with Parameter estimated from Bottom-up model to Integrate between Top-down and Bottom-up Model
S. Kypreos (PSI) and E. Panos Integrating the TDBU-ETSAP models in MCP format
Matthew Winning, University College London Ongoing Macro-Stand Alone and CGE modelling approaches at UCL Energy Institute
James Glynn, University College Cork Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system using ETSAP-TIAM-MSA
Peggy Mischke, DTU Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: Perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

12:30-13:30

Lunch

13:30-16:10

Session 3: TIMES-CGE Workshop 3
Chair: James Glynn, UCC
Frédéric Ghersi, SMASH, CIRED A TIAM/IMACLIM bottom-up/top-down linkage: application to a prospective Outlook of electric vehicle penetration in EU28,
Robert Beestermöller, IER Energy and macro-economic effects of decentralisation trends in the European electricity sector
Tara Caetano, Energy Research Centre, SA Economy-wide Implications of Policy and Uncertainty in the Power Sector of South Africa: A Linked Modelling Approach
Sophie Maire, Frank Vöhringer, EPFL/LEURE and Econability Linking electricity prices and costs in bottom-up top-down coupling under changing market environments

14:45-15:30

Coffee Break

15:30-16:10

TIMES – CGE Project Discussion
Open Discussion to Project Partners Next Steps – Book Chapter, Special Issue Journal Papers to feed into COP next year, Final Focus Group Workshop

16:10-17:00

Session 4: TIMES CGE Workshop 4
Chair: Brian O´Gallachoir, UCC
Francois Briens, MINES ParisTech Developing a Soft Linkage between a detailed dynamic input-output macroeconomic model and a MarkAl energy system model
Markus Blesl, IER Role of biomass in the energy system – linkages between the European energy system model TIMES PanEU and the agricultural Sector Model ESIM
Tom Kober, ECN, Phil Summerton, Cambridge Econometrics Climate change mitigation in Latin America: requirements for the energy sector and impacts on the economy

17:00

Event close

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 (9:00-12:30) - second parallel session
ETSAP-TIAM Press room

Venue: UN City

The ETSAP-TIAM collaboration started in 2011. The aim is to develop a harmonised global model based on the experience from many teams running the model for various purposes.


8:30

Registration, UN security check

9:00-10:30

Session 1: ETSAP TIAM Workshop 1
Chair: Markus Blesl, IER, TBC
Markus Blesl, IER Status of ETSAP-TIAM
Kober, Tom, ECN GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
Mousavi, Babak, IER Global decarbonisation pathways: Contribution of different options in CO2 reduction: TIAM-MACRO, Decomposition analysis
Napp, Tamaryn, EICL "Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned

10:30-11:00

Coffee Break

11:00-12:30

Session 2: ETSAP TIAM Workshop 2
Chair: Markus Blesl, IER, TBC
Christophe McGlade, UCL A Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future? Modelling the Long-Term Global. Potential of Natural Gas
Markus Blesl, IER Discussion on the next period working on ETSAP-TIAM

12:30-13:00

Lunch


Thursday, 20 November, 2014 (9:00-13:00)
Excursion to waste incineration / CHP plant in Copenhagen

Address: Kraftværksvej 31, bus 40 Meeting Point inside the Central Train Station at 8:30
(next to Irish Pub O´Malleys)
Organised by: Poul-Erik Grohnheit and Peggy Mischke (DTU)


We will visit the Amager Resource Centre (formerly Amagerforbrænding), located a few km from the Copenhagen city centre. The plant has produced district heating since 1970 and electricity since 1990 via the incineration of urban municipal waste.


Thursday-Friday, 20-21 November, 2014 (9:00-17:00)
Base level training on ETSAP tools

VEDA/TIMES
Trainer: Maurizio Gargiulo
(UN City VIP Meeting Room 0.2.20)