Location: China - IEA Seminar on Energy Modelling and Statistics19-24 October 2003 Beijing

Regular ETSAP Fall Meeting
Sunday 19 October 2003

Technical session on TIMES (restricted)

• Installation of the latest version of VEDA-TIMES on lap tops, demonstration, review of existing feature and list of desirable additional feature;
• Actual migration of additional MARKAL models to TIMES and runs with uneven time periods; Discussion and design of protocols to test VEDA-TIMES, models migrated from MARKAL, the merged code; design of the test case(s);
• Review of recent progress (see BugSummary4.doc; times-merger.doc) and planned further code changes / improvements;
• Discussion of the possible path forward: proposals for the completion, including documentation.

Joint China - IEA seminar on "Energy Modelling and Statistics"
Monday 20 October 2003

Welcome and Introduction

• Opening and Welcoming address by Dadi ZHOU, Director, Professor, Energy Research Institute (ERI)
• Address by the International Energy Agency, Fridtjof UNANDER, Principal Administrator (IEA)
• Address by ETSAP, Phil TSENG, US-DOE, Chair of ETSAP

Session 1: Modelling energy markets and investments
Chair: Yufeng YANG, Energy Research Institute

Hiroyuki KATO, International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook: The IEA-WEM China model

Kejun JIANG, Energy Research Institute: Modelling China's Energy & Environment

Yuan GUO, Energy Research Institute: China's Energy Demand Analysis and Carbon Emission Scenario

Youguo HE, China Technical Commitee of Coal Industry, China Coal security Department: China's Coal Demand and Supply Outlook: An Integrated Analysis from Different Experts

Changyu OUYAN, State Grid Corporation of China: China's Electricity Power Investment Outlook and Challenges

Hiroyuki KATO, International Energy Agency: World Energy Investment Outlook

Session 2: Observing Energy Markets: Understanding and using Energy Data
Chair: Leo SCHRATTENHOLZER, IIASA

Hong ZHU, China Statistic Bureau: An Introduction to the China's Energy Statistics System: Methodology and Problems

Riccardo QUERCIOLI, International Energy Agency: IEA Statistics for China; Status and Areas for Improvements

Hongyi HAO, Economics and Technology Research Institute, CNPC: China's Energy Statistics Comparing with Other Countries in the World

Fridtjof UNANDER, International Energy Agency: Following Energy Use and CO2 Emissions; IEA's decomposition approach

Stefan HIRSCHBERG and Thomas HECK, PSI: Externalities of Energy Systems for Comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis with Focus on China

TUESDAY 21 OCTOBER

Session 3: Modelling Energy Technologies
Chair: Kejun JIANG, Energy Research Institute

Peter TAYLOR, AEA Technology: Options for a Low Carbon Future - an analysis for the United Kingdom

Yufeng YANG, Energy Research Institute: China's Energy Supply and Cost Analysis: An EFOM-EN Model Application and Uncertainties

Ugo FARINELLI, Member of the China Council for International: A sustainable energy strategy for China based on advanced technologies; findings of the Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies of the China Council

Fridtjof UNANDER and Dolf GIELEN, International Energy Agency: Modelling Energy Technology Perspectives in China and rest of the World

Xiulian HU, Energy Research Institute: Technology, Policy Assessment for GHG and SO2 Mitigation

Socrates KYPREOS, PSI: Exploring the Diffusion of Fuel-Cell Cars in China

Session 4: Modelling Environmental Impacts
Chair: GianCarlo TOSATO, ETSAP Project Head

Aling ZHANG, Energy Technology & Economy Institute, Tsinghua University: An Introduction to the 3E (Integrated Energy, Environment, and Economy) Model and CO2 emissions

Leo SCHRATTENHOLZER, IIASA: Designing Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies; Global "3E" Scenarios described by IIASA models

Yufang YAO, China Academy of Social Science: China's Energy Demand and Carbon Emission Scenarios: Meeting China's Human and Culture Development Potentials

Dolf GIELEN, International Energy Agency: The IEA EMB-ETP modeling framework: preliminary results with emphasis on the Chinese industry

Wenying CHEN, 3E (Energy, Environment, Economy) Institute, Tsinghua University: China's Carbon Emission Reduction Scenario and Marginal Cost Analysis: A Markal Application

Gary Goldstein, IRG: Modelling Methane Mitigation Options in USEPA National MARKAL Model

Afternoon Session: Models and Policy Analyses carried out with ETSAP tools

Mr. Peter Read, Massey University, New Zeeland: The Development of a Long-Term Energy Model for New Zealand

Tom Alfstad, Energy Research Institute, University of Cape Town, South Africa: A multi-regional TIMES model for Southern African Development Community

Update on recent international and national activities

• IEA-ETP
• EIA-SAGE
• AUSAID-AAMRUG
• Belgium
• Germany
• Italy
• Korea
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• UK
• USA
• China
• Conclusion

Thursday 23 October 2003

Morning: ETSAP Executive Committee Meeting
(Restricted to ExCo Delegates and invited representatives)
(Draft Agenda and Annexes circulated separately)

GianCarlo TOSATO, ETSAP: Diffusion of ETSAP tools
Installation and documentation of MARKAL and related software & Data Bases

Afternoon Session: Technical meeting (restricted)
Specifications for a simplified all inclusive installation of ETSAP tools
Towards a comprehensive documentation of ETSAP tools

Friday 24 October 2003

Morning Session:
1 - Modelling issues relevant for China energy environment policies and measure
2 - Towards a multi-regional MARKAL-TIMES model for China with the support of ETSAP

Dadi ZHOU, Director General, Energy Research Institute
Yufeng YANG, Energy Research Institute
Kejun JIANG, Energy Research Institute
Xiulian HU, Energy Research Institute
Wenying CHEN, 3E (Energy, Environment, Economy) Institute, Tsinghua University
Aling ZHANG, Energy Technology & Economy Institute, Tsinghua University
Yufang YAO, China Academy of Social Science
Youguo HE, China Technical Committee of Coal Industry, China Coal security Department
Changyu OUYAN, State Grid Corporation of China
Hong ZHU, China Statistic Bureau
Hongyi HAO, Economics and Technology Research Institute, CNPC
Yuan GUO, Energy Research Institute

Gary GOLDSTEIN, IRG, USA
Amit KANUDIA, KanORS, Canada
Socrates KYPREOS, PSI, Switzerland
Ken NOBLE, ABARE, Australia
Uwe REMME, IER, Germany
Osamu SATO, JAERY, Japan
Peter TAYLOR, AEA Technology, UK
GianCarlo TOSATO, ETSAP, Italy
Denise VAN REGEMORTER, University of Leuven, Belgium

Afternoon Session: Tutorial session "Hands-on ETSAP tools"

MARKAL-TIMES model generators

ANSWER-VEDA shells

Energy modellers have the opportunity to sit with ETSAP experts (Gary Goldstein, Ken Noble, Amit Kanudia, Uwe Remme, Denise Van Regemorter, GianCarlo Tosato) and experiment the use of update techniques with China MARKAL models or models of other countries.