Managing Demand Supply mismatch
#1
Dear Dr. Antti, 
I hope you doing well. 

I am facing an issue with my model. In my hourly model most of the time, the demand and supply perfectly matches however in certain time-slices the model generates more electricity than its demand.  My guess is that the model is over generating because:
1. It has capacity constraint to meet wherein a min share of non-fossil fuel capacity in each period need to be maintained
2. Most of the power generation process has some technical minimum for operation and renewables are a must run technology
3. Model chooses to use the least cost option of generation such as coal (which are less flexible and operates at technical minimum) and renewable also generates (having no fuel cost and are must run non-flexible) which leads to over generation in certain time slices. I understand that this must be a least cost option that's why model chooses this option. But is there any way that model can be forced to use the expensive gas option but should not over generate than demand.

My main concern is how to restrict this over generation because this is impacting my trade as it makes the marginal value zero in certain timeslices which makes export import misleading due to zero marginals.

Model description: My model is an hourly model that’s solves demand and supply for each hours. For each year, I have 12 months and 288 sub time slices under these 12 months. Each time slice representing one hour of a day for each month i.e. April 01Hr time-slice represents first hour (12 a.m. to 1 a.m.) of each day in April and thus every month will have 24 time-slices. Therefore the 24 time slices of April Month will have a parent time slice as April Month. 
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#2
I don't know where the problem stems, but it seems it is not a technical problem related to ETSAP-TIMES. If there is a large amount of zero variable cost renewable generation in the system, then power curtailment and (and zero marginal value) may occur in some timeslices.

Anyway, one suggestion for a modeling issue to check:

  • How do you define  the "technical minimum for operation"? If you are using lower bounds on process availabilities (NCAP_AF(LO)), then remove those, and use ACT_MINLD instead. ACT_MINLD will allow the technologies to be also shut down seasonally (or even daily), if they are not needed. The solution is not a "least-cost" solution if you are forcing thermal generation in the model although the plants could be shut down instead.

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