KANLO ETSAP_TIAM KanORS

ETSAP-TIAM (15 regions, 2010 version)

TIMES Integrated Assessment Model

for ETSAP contracting parties

 

April 2011

 

 

 

This page is meant to make global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM ETSAP) accessible to the ETSAP contracting parties. For this, the contracting party must:

»        Sign a letter of agreement (LoA) with the Operating Agent

o        Email request to the etsap operating agent with a signed copy of the LoA

o        Username/password for download will be provided after this step

»        Have a licensed version of VEDA_FE on the machine. This must be version 4.3.40 or higher.

 

 

*** Deliverable of the ETSAP-TIAM Phase II project (for WG members) 2014 ***

*** ETSAP-TIAM Work in Progress (access restricted to WG members) 2013 ***

*** ETSAP-TIAM Work in Progress (access restricted to WG members) 2012 ***

 

DCM | Forum

 

The above link provides:

·         Model documentation

·         Results for the Reference and two climate scenarios

·         Downloads:

o        The model

o        VEDA_BE input files

o        VEDA_BE sets and tables definitions

·         Link to the TIAM users forum

 

Here is an overview of the main enhancements done since the last delivery of ETSAP-TIAM.

 

The new version of ETSAP-TIAM reflects:

·         The database used for the analysis of renewable energy and climate scenarios for the Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD, partially supported by ETSAP);

·         Several additional adjustments done after the RETD work and that we consider important to share with the ETSAP community.

 

It includes the same 15 regions as included in previous versions of ETSAP-TIAM.

 

Results for the following scenarios are available online:

-          Reference case (ET_Ref_1303)

-          Maximum radiative forcing of LLGHG of 3.5 W/m2 over the entire time horizon (ET_RF3p5_1303)

-          Maximum radiative forcing of LLGHG of 4.5 W/m2 over the entire time horizon (ET_RF4p5_1303)

 

Reminder: In these runs, the climate constraint concerns long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHG) only. It doesn’t include the negative forcing (cooling effects) by aerosols. In other words, the temperature results cannot be relied upon since all radiative forcings are not included. Moreover, such a target must be considered as stricter than a target including all radiative forcings. The user can change these assumptions as wanted (see the Climate section of this Manual).

-          radiative forcing of LLGHG of 3.5 W/m2 is equivalent to around 450 ppmv of CO2 only (530 ppmv of CO2-equivalent for all LLGHG's)

-          radiative forcing of LLGHG of 4.5 W/m2 is equivalent to around 550 ppmv of CO2 only(640 ppmv of CO2-equivalent for all LLGHG's)

 

Technology characteristics

The following list of changes made in the database is not exhaustive, but represents the most important ones.

·         Characteristics of power plants (with and without CCS), synthetic fuel conversion, alternative transportation technologies, refineries, have all been updated.

·         Lead time periods for capture and sequestration and for enhanced geothermal systems have been added,

·         The avoided transport and distribution costs for distributed compared to grid-connected electricity have been introduced.

·         Associated gas (i.e. gas produced from oil extraction) represents a sizable portion of natural gas production. The appropriate computation of the associated gas in the cumulative amount of gas available has been implemented. This results in lower total gas resources available (but no drastic changes in results were observed after this change).

 

Trade

·         Trade of crude oil and of RPP now fully distinguishes between OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. This is useful when simulating scenarios where OPEC adopts different policies from the rest of oil producers/exporters.

 

Renewables

·         Installed capacity and activity of biodiesel and bioethanol plants (AL_ALCETH1ST, AL_BIODST1ST, AU_ALCETH, AU_BIODST, AX_ALCETH1ST, AX_BIODST1ST), solar thermal (A_MAXCSP, A_MINCSP), solar photovoltaic (A_MINSOLPV), wind (A_MAXWIND, A_MINWIND) have been updated to reflect the changes between 2005, base year of the model, and 2010.

·         49 solar thermal projects (CSP) that are under construction or planned have been included as individual processes (ESOTH*).

·         The potential for thermal solar (CSP) in Africa and Middle-East, as well as the possible export of electricity to Europe, are identified.

·         Biomass resources have been updated. The potentials for energy crops assume, among others, agriculture based on an advanced technology system but without irrigation. The total biomass available in ETSAP-TIAM at the World level was 230 EJ in 2050 before the update; it is now 240 EJ, but the regional potentials show more differences. The use of biomass in 2005 is calibrated to the IEA database.

·         Trade of biomass and biofuels is not currently implemented. Trade of any commodity can be easily added with the file ScenTrade__Trade_Links.xls included in the Trade folder.

·         Several technologies using biomass have been added, such as: FT Diesel Solid biomass with CO2 capture, First generation biodiesel and second generation bioethanol plants (from cellulosic sources).

·         Some constraints on annual growths have been added to avoid too fast substitution or penetration of technologies, such as: primary production of coal (UC_MaxGrowthOfCoalProd), biomass fired power plants (UC_MaxGrowthOfBioELC).

·         A constraint on wind penetration is A_MaxGblWindNewCap, the assumed  maximum values of World added capacity per year of wind are 30 GW in 2012, 130 GW in 2020.

·         A constraint on solar penetration is A_MinGblPVNewCap, the assumend minimum values of World added capacity per year of solar PV: 50 GW in 2020, 60 GW in 2050.

 

Carbon Capture and Sequestration

·         Technology characteristics have been updated. No change in the potentials.

·         The limit imposed on the penetration of coal power plants (reflecting local air quality issues) now excludes power plants with CCS, so that it can (and should) now be kept in all scenarios.

·         The additional scenario Scen_CCS_limit is provided to the users as a template (available in the SuppXls folder) to limit, if wanted, for the cumulative quantity of CO2 stored in geological and oceanic sinks at the World level.

 

Nuclear

·         Lower and higher nuclear limits by region, have been reduced compared to the previous versions of the model (A_MINNUC, A_MAXNUC).

·         The additional scenario Scen_Nuclear is provided to the users as a template (available in SuppXls) to modify, if wanted, the lower and higher limits as defined in A_MINNUC, A_MAXNUC.

 

End-use sectors

·         Market shares have been added in some end-use subsectors in order to impart stability to fuel shares (TUC-U_SHR*, TUC-L_SHAR_OIL*, UC_C*, UC_R*).

 

Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture

·         Mitigation options for CH4 and N2O from agriculture are not endogenously modelled. However, the scenario Scen_MitigationAgriculture450 includes reduced emissions from agriculture reflecting the emissions estimated in the World Energy Outlook (2009). It is equivalent to a mitigation scenario with free emission reductions in the agriculture sector. The user may select it or not in the climate scenarios.

 

Climate

·         The exogenous radiative forcing trajectory (CM_EXOFORC in Scen_ClimParametersExoForcingLLGHG) represents forcing from the radiative agents not endogenously modeled. Its values define the kind of forcing agents the user wants to include in the radiative forcing equation, in other words, in the climate module. Its current values correspond to the Long Lived GHG (other Kyoto gases - HFC's, CxFy, SF6, and gases covered by the Protocol of Montreal). Of course, temperature results can be relied upon only if all radiative forcings are included. Reminder: The exogenous forcing corresponding to LLGHG is high in short and mid-term since it doesn’t include the negative forcing (cooling effects) by aerosols. Therefore, it may make severe climate targets difficult to reach in early and mid century. The user is free to define other assumptions about the exogenous radiative forcing. 

·         No CO2 tax is included in the database. The scenario Scen_CO2Tax is provided to the users as a template (available in SuppXls) to insert a CO2 tax.

·         The scenario Scen_ClimRF is provided as a template (available in SuppXls) to put upper limits on future radiative forcing values.

·         Mitigation options available in this version of the model make feasible forcing targets as small as 3.0 W/m2 with LLGHG, corresponding to an around 400 ppm CO2 only, and 480 ppm CO2-eq for all LLGHG's.

·         A relatively recent feature of TIMES allows a user to model climate constraints even after the 2100 end-of-horizon. Doing so may be desirable in order to avoid end-of-horizon effects. The current assumptions are the following ones (see documentation on the ETSAP website Climate-Beyond-EOH.pdf ):

o        In the Reference case, emissions are held constant at the 2100 value up to year 2150 (attribute CM_CONST, commodity EXT-EOH) and then decline linearly to 0 by 2200 (attribute CM_MAXC, commodity CO2-GTC).

o        In the climate cases, forcing targets apply after EOH as well (Scen_ClimRF) and the 2150 emissions are assumed to be 4.5 and 3.5 GtC for the RF4p5 and RF3p5 cases respectively.

o        The reporting years interval after EOH is 20 (attribute CM_CONST, commodity BEOHMOD)

 


 

Appendix: List of files provided for ETSAP-TIAM

 

FOLDER  GENERAL

 

SysSettings

Interpolation options

VT_REG_ELC_v1p1

VT_REG_IND_v1p1

VT_REG_RES_v1p1

VT_REG_TRA_v1p1

VT_REG_UPS_v1p1

Regional templates, for the 15 regions, plus VT_GBL_UPS_v1p1

 

 

 

FOLDER  SubRes_Tmpl

 

SubRes_AltFuel

SubRes_AltFuel_Trans

New alternative fuel technologies

SUBRES_B-NewTechs

SUBRES_B-NewTechs_Trans

New technology repository

SubRes_CH4measuresC

SubRes_CH4measuresC_Trans

CH4 mitigation options

SubRes_CSPProjects

SubRes_CSPProjects_Trans

Solar thermal projects being implemented

SUBRES_Hydrogen

SUBRES_Hydrogen_Trans

Hydrogen technologies

SUBRES_LUCO2

SUBRES_LUCO2_Trans

Emissions from land-use

SUBRES_NonCO2

SUBRES_NonCO2_Trans

NonCO2 emissions

SUBRES_SequestrationC

SUBRES_SequestrationC_Trans

CO2 capture and sequestration options

SubRes_N2Omeasures

SubRes_N2Omeasures_Trans

N2O mitigation options

 

 


 

FOLDER  SuppXLS

 

Demands\Dem_Alloc+series

Demands\ScenDem_BASE15R

Macro-economic drivers, allocation of drivers to demands, elasticities of demands to the drivers

Trades\ScenTrade__Trade_Links

Trades\ScenTrade_TRADE_Parms

Trade description (links between trading regions, costs and bounds)

BY_Trans

Cost regionalization. Some other declarations.

Scen_BASE_ElcTDcost

Avoided transport and distribution costs for distributed compared to grid-connected electricity

Scen_BASE_EmiAggregation

Definition of TOTCO2, TOTCH4, TOTN2O, NONCO2

Scen_BASE_extra

Modifications of data included in Templates and SubRES files

Scen_BASE_Extraction

Scen_BASE_Biomass

Modifications of fossil and of biomass resources

 Scen_ClimParametersExoForcingLLGHG

For the climate module (the exogenous forcing currently included covers only the GHGs of the Kyoto protocol; the user can modified it as wanted)

Scen_ElastPar

Price elasticities of demands. To be included in runs with elastic demands.

Scen_Existing-RNW-BIOFUELS-UC

Data on renewable energy

Scen_ForRETDTechData

Scen_ZForRETDTRAdata

Scen_MiscAdjHighCostWindGeot

Modification of data related to renewable and transport

Scen_MiscAdj_OFFEPS

Scen_ZOPEC-OIL-TradeStuff

Modification of data complementary to changes done in SubRes. Modification of data related to OPEC / non-OPEC oil

Scen_MitigationAgriculture450

Emissions from agriculture in a climate scenario

Scen_NoOverProd

To avoid the overproduction of electricity and hydrogen resulting from the use of CCS-biomass only to get negative emissions

Scen_UC-ELC

Scen_UC-IND

Scen_UC-UPS

Scen_UC_RSD-COM

Scen_UC-TRA

User’s constraints

To be included in all runs

Scen_X_Gas4

To increase gas price

 Scen_X_OilPrice-100_Gas

To increase oil price

Scen_CCS_limit

Scen_ClimRF

Scen_CO2Tax

Scen_Nuclear

Additional scenarios provided to the users. To be used only if needed, and with data to be fixed by the user.


 Appendix: Scenarios to be included in the base case

 

 

BASE

ALTFUEL

B-NEWTECHS

CH4MEASURESC

CSPPROJECTS

HYDROGEN

LUCO2

N2OMEASURES

NONCO2

SEQUESTRATIONC

BASE15R

SYSSETTINGS

TRADE_PARMS

BASE_BIOMASS

BASE_ELCTDCOST

BASE_EMIAGGREGATION

BASE_EXTRA

BASE_EXTRACTION

CLIMPARAMETERSEXOFORCINGLLGHG

ELASTPAR

EXISTING-RNW-BIOFUELS-UC

FORRETDTECHDATA

MISCADJ_OFFEPS

MISCADJHIGHCOSTWINDGEOT

NOOVERPROD

UC_RSD-COM

UC-ELC

UC-IND

UC-TRA

UC-UPS

X_GAS4

X_OILPRICE-100_GAS

ZFORRETDTRADATA

ZOPEC-OIL-TRADESTUFF

 

***