The 7th Strategic Energy Plan

The Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan sets the policy direction for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 while ensuring energy security and economic competitiveness. It defines the optimal 2040 energy mix, targeting 4050% renewable electricity, around 20% nuclear, and 3040% thermal generation, supported by largescale hydrogen deployment, CCUS, and enhanced grid infrastructure. The plan recognises offshore wind, solar PV expansion, and hydrogen supplychain development as critical pillars, alongside maintaining reliable fossilfuel capacity during the transition. 

To support the plan, the government commissioned several nationallevel energy supplyanddemand studies for 2040–2050 using multiple modelling frameworks. Among these, the TIMES model was applied to explore technologydeployment and importcost scenarios. The collective modelling exercise found that largescale renewable adoption occurs under all pathways, with hydrogen imports varying depending on technology progress, and confirmed the need for advanced flexibility solutions to integrate variable renewables. CCUS and hydrogen were identified as essential for decarbonising hardtoabate sectors, while nuclear power remains a strategic contributor to supply stability.