Supporting the 2040 climate target under the European Climate Law

The European Climate Law requires the European Commission to propose an intermediate 2040 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target no later than six months after the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement. In February 2024, following scientific advice from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change and a comprehensive Impact Assessment, the Commission recommended a 90% net GHG emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. This target is intended to keep the EU on a credible pathway to climate neutrality by 2050, while ensuring economic competitiveness, a just transition, and alignment with international climate commitments.

The proposed 2040 target represents a key milestone in the EU’s long-term decarbonisation strategy, marking the start of the final decade before 2050 when the most challenging and costly reductions will be required. Achieving it will demand the full implementation of the 2030 framework, strategic policy and technology choices, and coordinated contributions from all sectors. The analysis supporting the recommendation also sets the stage for a political debate on the post-2030 climate and energy framework, informing the next Commission’s legislative proposal to enshrine the target in the European Climate Law.

To underpin this recommendation, the Commission conducted a multi-model analysis of the EU energy system’s transformation between 2030 and 2050. Three established partial-equilibrium energy system models were used to examine a main decarbonisation pathway in which the EU meets its 2030 targets, maintains emissions in a narrow range by 2040, and achieves climate neutrality by 2050. The analysis compared and contrasted model results to identify consistent findings and uncertainties.