Support for medium energy and climate policy making

Finland’s medium-term energy and climate strategy was prepared under the leadership of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment with support from several ministries and research organisations. As part of this process, the EU-funded KEITO study (New measures and scenarios for national energy and climate policy) provided the analytical basis for assessing how current and additional policy measures could support Finland’s commitment to climate neutrality by 2035 and net-negative emissions thereafter. 

The KEITO analysis evaluated the impacts of climate and energy policies on greenhouse gas emissions, energy supply and demand, industrial development, land-use emissions and removals, and the national economy. Results were regularly presented to the government’s ministerial working group on clean energy, environment, and security of supply to support strategic decision-making. 

Two core scenarios were assessed. The With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario reflects policies in force as of March 2023, including EU Fit-for-55 measures and national legislation. The With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario incorporates new policy decisions by the current government and additional EU measures. The analysis shows that while Finland is projected to meet its 2030 climate targets under WAM, a significant gap remains toward the 2035 climate neutrality goal—estimated at around 34 Mt CO₂-eq—largely due to declining forest carbon sinks. At the same time, electrification across industry, transport, buildings, and data centres is expected to drive strong growth in electricity demand, highlighting the importance of timely investment in generation and grid infrastructure.