Separate CO2 removal targets to strengthen the EU 2040 climate framework 

As the European Union negotiated a 2040 climate target of at least a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, an important policy debate emerged around how the target should be structured. While the European Commission’s proposal relied on a single net target, concerns were raised that combining emissions reductions and carbon removals in one metric could weaken transparency and obscure the distinct roles of mitigation and removals. This debate gained importance as carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are expected to play an increasing role in achieving climate neutrality by 2050. 

To inform this discussion, Carbon Gap and VTT conducted modelling analysis exploring alternative target structures that distinguish between gross emissions reductions, temporary removals from land-based sinks, and permanent CDR. Using the Pan-European TIMES-VTT (PET-VTT) energy system model, the study examined pathways consistent with the EU’s proposed 2040 net target while applying policy-relevant constraints such as limits on land-based removals and competing biomass uses. 

The results show that separate targets for emissions reductions, temporary removals, and permanent removals are feasible and can provide clearer policy signals than a single net target. By clarifying the distinct roles of mitigation and removals, such an approach could improve transparency, strengthen accountability, and support the design of targeted policy instruments for scaling carbon removals within the EU climate framework.