Parliamentary scrutiny of Carbon Budgets 2031–2040  

In October 2025, Ireland’s Joint Committee on Climate, Energy and the Environment published its report on the proposed Carbon Budgets for 2031–2035 and 2036–2040, referred to the Committee by Dáil Éireann and Seanad Éireann under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021. The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) proposed a final carbon budget of 160 Mt CO₂-eq for 2031–2035 and a provisional budget of 120 Mt CO₂-eq for 2036–2040, requiring sustained emissions reductions of at least 6.3% per year through 2040.

To support the development of these budgets, the CCAC established a Carbon Budgets Working Group to produce an integrated evidence base combining sectoral modelling frameworks. The energy system analysis was conducted using the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) developed at University College Cork, alongside agricultural and land-use modelling tools. The modelling produced system-wide scenarios of energy demand, electrification, technology deployment, and emissions trajectories consistent with alternative carbon budget levels. 

The analysis clarified the scale and pace of structural transformation required across electricity, transport, buildings, agriculture, and land use to remain within statutory carbon ceilings. It also highlighted the risks of exceeding budgets and the implications of emissions rollover into subsequent budget periods. 

In its report, the Committee emphasised the importance of transparency, independent peer review, and stronger socio-economic assessment of modelling results. It also called for enhanced monitoring across government departments, strengthened just transition measures, accelerated electrification and renewable deployment, and improved governance of land-use and climate policy implementation.