Impact of the EU Fit-for-55 package on Sweden’s transport sector

Transport Analysis, a Swedish government agency for transport policy analysis, commissioned an assessment of how the EU’s Fitfor55 legislative package could affect Sweden’s ability to meet its Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) commitments for the transport sector. The study, undertaken with the TIMESSweden energy system optimisation model hosted at Luleå University of Technology, examined how combinations of EU and nationallydriven measures interact to shape emissions reductions, costs, and policy feasibility.

The analysis considered multiple transportdemand scenarios and tested a range of policy combinations, including carbon pricing under the EU ETS1 and ETS2, fuel taxation, and varying reductionobligation quotas for fossil fuels. The integrated systemmodelling approach allowed policymakers to compare the relative effectiveness and economic impacts of different measures within the broader Swedish energy and climate framework, identifying synergies and tradeoffs across modes such as road, aviation, and shipping.

The work reinforced the need for substantial emissions reductions in road transport to achieve Sweden’s ESR target, given its large share of covered emissions and comparatively costeffective mitigation options. It also highlighted the strategic role of aligning national policy instruments with EUlevel mechanisms to maximise effectiveness while maintaining social and economic balance. The results are informing Sweden’s ongoing transportclimate policy development, supporting a systemwide view of how Fitfor55 implementation can best contribute to national and EU climate goals.